Russia won't change just because its ambassador was assassinated
The murder of Andrey Karlov at an art exhibition in Ankara, Turkey, is a tragedy.
As yet, we know very little about the motives of his killer, Mevlut Mert Altintas. Chances are, we never will.
But
it is at least as possible that he acted as an individual in response
to Russian actions in Aleppo as that he killed on the instructions of a
wider group.
Both
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Vladimir Putin may
nevertheless be inclined to structure the assassination into their
existing narratives, different though these may be.
The
idea of a wider conspiracy, going beyond the actions of a lone gunman,
whose ability to get himself, armed, to stand right behind the Russian
ambassador in order to shoot him needs explanation, is inherently more
convincing to many minds than the proposition that he acted alone.
Turkey: Alleged terror group in country is to blame?
Erdogan might be predisposed to see the assassin as acting on the behalf of an alleged terror group within Turkey.
Reports are already emerging that Atlintas' uncle was a former senior executive at a school connected to Fethullah Gulen, the exiled cleric whom Erdogan has blamed for instigating this summer's attempted coup against his government.
Such
a narrative would allow Erdogan both to put further pressure on the
United States to extradite Gulen to Turkey, while simultaneously
offering justification for clamping down yet more vigorously on his
critics.
Russia: Al Nusra behind attack?
Fighters from al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, al Nusra Front, drive in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo flying Islamist flags.
For
Russia, the attack might well be seen as orchestrated by what Moscow
sees as the terrorists it claims to be fighting in Syria.
Some are already claiming that what he shouted may suggest a link to al Nusra, a Syrian affiliate of al Qaeda.
The
proposition that what the Russians and their allies have done to Aleppo
was itself the reason for their ambassador in Ankara to be killed does
not sit well with the Kremlin's claim to its domestic audience that
Russia's role in the Syrian civil war is as a force for good, that
Russia is defending the Syrian people from an illegal revolt against a
democratically elected leader.
Ignoring 'Do not forget Aleppo!'
Russian
state media have paid scant attention to the fact that after shooting
Karlov, Altintas shouted: "Allahu akbar (God is greatest). Do not forget
Aleppo! Do not forget Syria!"
Russia
is unlikely to change its approach to the Syrian crisis because of
their ambassador's killing. The Kremlin is more likely to want to finish
the job, as it would see it. Revenge for the ambassador's killing would
be a natural impulse.
Members of a Turkish forces honor guard carry the Russian flag-draped coffin of Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrey Karlov.
The recent recapturing of Palmyra by ISIS shows how difficult the situation in Syria is, even after the reduction of Aleppo to rubble.
Russia's
calculation nevertheless still seems to be that its goal of helping
Bashar al-Assad win can only succeed by continuing -- perhaps even
escalating -- the types of operations we have already seen in the
country.
Putin will also have the chance once again to poke the United States in the eye and make the West look weak.
John Kerry promised Sergey Lavrov the moderate rebels being backed by the West in Syria would be made to separate from al Nusra as part of the ceasefire talks in September.
That has not happened, and now a Russian ambassador is dead.
Can two different stories coexist?
But would it not look odd if two world leaders spin different lines and speak to differing versions of history?
Not
really. We in the West are not great at understanding the nature of
authoritarian leadership buttressed by relentless mass media propaganda.
The recent degree of friendship between Russia and Turkey remains of value to both countries.
Putin
has said the killing was a clear provocation aimed at undermining not
only the normalization of Russian-Turkish relations, but also the "peace
process in Syria."
Erdogan has concurred, saying "the Russian government and Turkish republic will not fall for provocation."
Putin's
wider ambition remains for the world order based on transatlantic ties
supporting international law to become further eroded.
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